AI動能可減輕美股8月調整幅度及壓力

「美國批准Nvidia H20及AMD MI-308 AI GPU對中國出口，但有幾項問題待解決。首先，美國要求這些出口中國的GPU需額外繳納15%關稅，影響毛利率、定價及銷售。其次，中國客戶雖有購買意願，但中國政府及媒體質疑Nvidia H20晶片網路安全，有後門風險，不鼓勵國內企業依賴。」

在8月1日因非農就業報告疲弱引發調整後，美國市場憑藉蘋果及AI龍頭股如Nvidia上週的強勁表現，基本收復8月1日的跌幅。儘管AI及科技股如蘋果可能在接下來數週內維持強勢，支撐大盤，但因過去數月強勁漲勢，8月最可能仍為調整或整固階段。

近期經濟數據不均衡，如疲弱的就業數字、不利的通脹數據及低於預期的企業信心，顯示部分美國經濟較6至12個月前趨緩。儘管標普500企業整體盈餘好於預期，但稍弱的業績和銷售及盈餘展望遭市場大幅懲罰。根據美銀研究，利潤低於預期的公司，業績公佈後股價下跌幅度比過去 25 年類似業績未達預期的平均股價下跌幅度高出 1-2倍。

8月市場仍對經濟數據及企業業績高度敏感，持續整固態勢。除非出現超預期強勁數據，指數如道瓊及標普500漲幅有限，難創新高。納斯達克受惠AI主題及蘋果免關稅消息，表現相對強勁，但在21,000點之上升勢稍嫌過頭，即使AI消息利好，其漲幅可能有限，對整體市場支撐也有限。

在Nvidia於8月27日公布季度財報前，納斯達克僅能部分抵消標普與道指的非科技股疲弱，這兩大指數預計出現3-5%的輕微調整。若AI持續創高，包括著名的「七巨頭」科技股將有助減緩修正幅度與時間，修正幅度有望縮小至約3%，且持續數日而非數週。即使未出現明顯修正，整固也是必需且可能在本月發生。

AI動能已持續強勁2-3個月，如今可能趨緩，尤其近期AI GPU出口中國的利好消息減少。美國批准Nvidia H20及AMD MI-308 AI GPU對中國出口，但有幾項問題待解決。首先，美國要求這些出口中國的GPU需額外繳納15%關稅，影響毛利率、定價及銷售。其次，中國客戶雖有購買意願，但中國政府及媒體質疑Nvidia H20晶片網路安全，有後門風險，不鼓勵國內企業依賴。Nvidia迅速反駁相關指控，但此類噪音短期可能抑制AI股走勢。Nvidia、台積電、美光、博通及AMD等頂尖AI股近期大幅反彈，此噪音或成為獲利回吐的理由。

關稅不確定性亦為本月的市場障礙，多場高調關稅談判預期有波折方達成協議。除了瑞士、加拿大、巴西及印度的談判進展令人憂慮，中美談判尤為焦灼，現階段連停火協議延長尚不明朗。此類一對一談判常有激烈言詞，並且最終達成協議前常伴隨恐懼情緒，成為獲利回吐修正的最好藉口。

因此，雖AI股強勢上週支撐美股避免更大修正或拋售，8月市場展望並不樂觀。經過4個月強勁反彈後，本月應是調整期。若宏觀及微觀數據持續不振，打擊投資情緒，AI及科技股恐無法完全對沖，標普500及道瓊或出現微幅下跌。

若上述利空消息削弱AI本月動能，支撐大盤的力道減弱，標普500及道瓊可能出現更大修正。但美股基本面仍具韌性，預期為3-5%的輕微修正，或更小的2-3%整固。筆者雖期待更大修正以造就逢低買入良機，然而美股似乎不願意大於3%回調，現階段仍建議耐心觀望。

AI strength may trim magnitude & duration of August stock market correction

After August 1^st correction sparks by weak Non-Farm Payroll report, US market recovers essentially all Aug-1^st decline on solid gains of Apple & AI leader stocks such as Nvidia last week.  While AI & tech stocks like Apple may remain strong to underpin the broader market in the next few weeks, consolidation or correction is still the most likely outcome in August after strong gains last few months.

Uneven macro reports such as weak job number, unfavourable inflation data, or lower-than-expected business sentiment in the last few days show that part of the US economy is slowing down.  On the other hand, while overall earnings results of S&P500 companies come in better than market forecast, some slightly weaker results and sales guidance are punished hard.  In fact, the market is especially unforgiven and any earnings misses suffered from drop bigger than long-term average.  According to Bank of America’s study, firms report lower than forecast earnings suffer 100%-200% bigger post-earnings share-price plunge compared to average price drop on similar earnings misses last 25 years.

In the near term, the market could remain highly sensitive to weaknesses of economic data and corporate results as it remains in a consolidation mode.  Unless there are unexpectedly strong reports from US economy & companies, broader index like Dow Jones & S&P500 may not rise too much or make new record highs.  NASDAQ may be stronger as tech stocks benefit from strength of AI theme or tariff exemption news like the Apple.  Still, at above 21,000, NASDAQ rally is stretched and even good news from AI may not lift it much higher and hence it may have limited support to the overall market.

Before end-August Nvidia’s quarterly report (27^th Aug), the mighty but top-heavy NASDAQ may only partially offset non-tech weakness that S&P500 could stage a mild correction of 3-5%.  If AI keep pushing new high, Magnificent Seven may reduce the correction magnitude & duration to around only 3% for days instead of weeks.  Even if it avoids a meaningful correction, a consolidation is needed and likely this month.

As AI strength has strong momentum for 2-3 months already, its momentum could be slower now especially as less favourable news on AI GPU China export lately.  Although White House approve export permit to Nvidia H20 & AMD MI-308 AI GPU to China market, a few issues lingering.  Firstly, US government requires these GPU China export to pay 15% extra tax that may affect profit margin, pricings, & sales of these low-end AI GPUs.  On the other hand, although China clients are keen to buy these chips, China government complains Nvidia H20 chips’ cyber-security on possible back-door or kill switch and discourage China firms from relying on it.  Although Nvidia pushes back those comments quickly, such noise may keep a lid on AI stocks in the near term.  Most top AI stocks like Nvidia, TSMC, Micron, Broadcom, & AMD have big gains and this noise could become a good excuse for profit-taking correction.

Lastly, ongoing tariff uncertainties is another hurdle for the market this month as several high-profile tariff negotiations may sound bad before eventual agreement.  Besides concerning progresses of Switzerland, Canada, Brazil, & India, the biggest worry would be the Sino-US negotiation as even the truce extension seems uncertain until the last day.  During such one-to-one negotiations, harsh rhetorics are common before an eventual agreement.  Unfortunately, such rhetoric could spark fear and profit-taking.