巴菲特引退後的啟示和展望

自從巴菲特五月初宣布辭去巴郡執行長職務（仍擔任董事長）以來，我收到許多投資者針對這家投資控股公司未來發展及其對股市影響的問題。藉此機會，我想分享對這位投資大師的敬佩，以及我們能從其近期變化中得到的啟示。

巴郡高額現金與缺乏自家股票回購

巴郡已持續一年多保持高額現金水平，目前約為3400億美元，對巴菲特而言也算相當高的數字。簡言之，這意味著巴菲特及其團隊作為自下而上的選股者，找不到足夠既優質又便宜的股票可買。這也暗示這位深度價值型基金經理認為目前市場及大多數股票的估值對其價值投資策略而言並不具吸引力。巴菲特曾表示他無法解釋或回答持有大量現金的原因，這聽起來像是他對市場並不樂觀。

但這並不意味市場將立刻下跌；事實上，他持有異常高現金已有一年多，但市場持續攀升並屢創新高。關鍵原因是科技股推動市場上揚，而科技股是巴菲特數十年來避而遠之的板塊。沒有最強的投資板塊，巴菲特很難找到足夠大，市值低廉且優質的股票可買。巴郡規模龐大，幾乎不考慮市值低於1,000億美元的股票。綜合巴菲特避開科技股及其高現金持有的事實，一個合理的結論是，當前市場缺乏足夠優質、大型、便宜且非科技類的股票可購買。

另一方面，儘管巴菲特熱衷股票回購，但巴郡近年並未回購自家股票，這顯示他和團隊並不認為巴郡本身的股價足夠便宜，甚至在其股價回落超過10%後仍不願回購。這是這位奧馬哈神諭者認為，整體市場和自家股票均不具吸引力的另一訊號。

巴菲特謹慎看法對股市的意涵

許多人擔心這會推低股市，尤其在市場普遍認為美股估值過高的情況下。美國股市整體被認為偏貴，標普500的2025年預估本益比(PE)約為22倍，高於過去數十年的15至20倍的水平。然而，巴郡高現金持有已為市場所熟知一年多，但對股市影響有限。市場終將可能調整以證明巴菲特預測正確，即使如此，這也只表示他預測準確，但並非他引發了市場調整。

舉例來說，巴郡於2022年第二季以每股68美元買入台積電41億美元股份，並於同年第四季以約71美元價格部分賣出86%，並於2023年第一季清倉剩餘部位，但這並未對台積電股價產生太大影響，三年後股價漲至240美元。同理，巴菲特2024年以約240美元賣出比亞迪長期持股（成本約8美元），但比亞迪股價仍漲至調整後340美元以上。這並非說巴菲特錯誤，而是即使他判斷正確，其行動也不會直接造成股價大幅波動，僅可能在買賣過程中引發短期的供需失衡。

現在該買進、持有還是賣出巴郡股票？

這是個重要卻非常難以回答的問題，尤其因為一個重大問題——經過六十年，頂尖投資經理人發生變動。在基金管理領域，任何主要或傳奇經理人的變動通常會引發投資者大量贖回基金，幾乎成為教科書式反應。巴菲特作為當代金融史上最傳奇的經理人，其辭去執行長職務、續任董事長令情況相當複雜。

他顯然將減少參與公司及投資組合的日常管理，但作為董事長，其投資理念及風格仍將延續。我必須坦言，我對即將上任的執行長格雷格·阿貝爾了解有限，無法多加評論。然而，他是巴菲特親自挑選並信任的人，肩負巨大責任，或許是金融投資史上最難填補的鞋子。長遠來看，阿貝爾將偏離巴菲特風格的程度，包括是否繼續避開科技股，是個關鍵問題。

若他在這方面轉向，巴郡將發生變化，甚至可能超越巴菲特，當有一位類似巴菲特的經理人開始投資科技股。舉例來說，巴菲特多年前買入蘋果股票並獲得良好回報。對我而言，蘋果與微軟、亞馬遜、Meta、Alphabet等許多利用科技優化業務運作、市場行銷及成本控制的科技公司差別不大。

這只是可能徹底改變這家投資控股公司展望的其中一種變化，未來還會有許多不同劇本可能上演。總結來說，目前難以評斷，必須觀察1至2年，看看阿貝爾先生將如何引領這家龐大的投資公司，之後才能分析是否值得買入或賣出。

Implications on Berkshire Hathaway recent behaviour and outlook beyond Buffett

Since Warren Buffet’s early May announcement of his retirement from Berkshire Hathaway as CEO (remains as Chairman), I have received a significant quantity of questions regarding the investment conglomerate’s future and his implications on stock markets from various investors.  Let me utilize this opportunity to share my admirations on this investment guru and what we can learn from its recent changes.

Berkshire’s high cash holdings and lack of own stock buybacks:

Berkshire has kept high cash level for over a year to latest roughly US$340 billion, quite high even for Buffett.  In short, it directly means that Buffett and his colleagues cannot find enough stocks that are both good quality AND cheap to buy as a bottom-up stock picker.  It also implies that the deep-value fund manager finds the current market and most stocks’ valuations unattractive for his value approach.  Warren once said that he cannot say or answer the reason of his high cash holdings which sounds like he is not optimistic about the market.

But it does not mean the market will fall imminently; in fact, he has unusually high cash for over a year but the market keeps going up and make new record highs.  Key reason is tech stocks driving market higher but it is a segment Buffett avoids for decades.  Without the strongest sector to invest, it is hard for him to find enough big, cheap, & quality stocks to buy.  Berkshire’s sheer size means it cannot consider any stocks with less than US$100 billion market cap.  Combining Buffett’s avoidance of tech stocks and his high holdings, one logical conclusion is there is not enough good quality, big, cheap, non-tech stocks to buy now.

On the other hand, despite Buffett’s well-known fondness of share buybacks, the lack of stock buyback of Berkshire’s own stock is a signal that he and his colleagues do not find Berkshire Hathaway cheap enough to buy back now even after its 10%+ pullback.  Another sign that the Omaha Oracle finds the overall market and his own stock unattractive.

Buffett cautious view’s implication on stock market

Many people worries if that would push the stock market lower especially as there has been widespread comment on US stock market valuation being too high.  US market in general are viewed as expensive with S&P500 at around 22 2025 estimated earnings against the 15-20x PE ratio in most of the last few decades.  However, as Berkshire’s high cash holdings has been well known by the investment world for over a year, it does not seem to affect the market much.  Eventually the market may correct and proves Buffett right.  Even so, it only means that the guru is correctly predicting that but he does not cause the market correction.

For example, Berkshire bought US$4.1 billion of TSMC in 2Q2022 at US$68 per share and sold 86% in 4Q2022 at around US$71 and remaining shares at 1Q2023 but it has not much effect on TSMC stock price which rose to $240 3 years later.  Similarly, his selling of his long holding on BYD in 2024 at around $240 (cost $8) has not stopped BYD from rising to over $340 (split adjusted).  Do not get me wrong, this is not saying Buffett was wrong but that even when he is right, his action will not cause the stock to move up and down except short-term demand-supply imbalance during his buying and selling of such stocks.

Should you buy, hold, or sell Berkshire Hathaway now?

That is the important question to ask but extremely hard to answer.  Especially difficult to answer due to one major issue – the change of top investment manager after 6 decades.  In fund picking world, any change of a major or legendary fund manager would prompt most investors to redeem from the fund; it is almost a text-book move.  As Buffett is at least the most legendary fund manager in contemporary financial history, his resignation of CEO and staying at the firm’s chairman makes it very tricky.

Clearly, he will be much less involved in day-to-day management of the firm and its portfolios but as a chairman, his philosophy and style will remain there.  I must confess I have limited knowledge on the incoming CEO Greg Abel and hence cannot comment too much.  However, he is handpicked and trusted by Warren Buffett, and has enormous shoes to fill, probably too big for anyone to fill in investment history.  The long-term question is how much he will deviate from Buffett’s style including avoiding tech stocks.

If he pivots on that, Berkshire Hathaway would be changed and may outshines Buffett when a Buffett-like investment manager can buy technology stocks.  One huge example would be Apple stocks Warren bought years ago and enjoy great return.  To me, Apple is not much different from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, & many other tech stocks which use technology to enhance their business operation, marketing, & cost control.

This is only one possible change that could totally change the outlook of this investment conglomerate and there are so many other scenarios that can play out differently.  In short, for now, it is impossible to say so until after 1-2 year of observation to see how Mr Abel would steer this huge investment conglomerate in the future before anyone can analyse if it worth buys or sell.

陳俊文（Norman）是一位獨立投資策略師，擁有超過30年專業投資經驗，曾在家族辦公室、銀行、精品基金公司、財富管理公司工作。在其職業生涯中，管理過多種資產，包括全球股票投資組合、多元資產投資組合、基金中的基金和可轉換債券基金。Norman對全球金融市場及多種投資資產具深入了解，包括全球股票、債券（高等級、高收益、混合、可轉換）、衍生性商品（選擇權、認股權證、掉期等）以及各類多頭和多頭產品對沖基金。他經常接受媒體採訪，並曾擔任多家大專院校專業金融課程的客座講師。