市場聚焦FOMC降息動向

繼上周兩份疲弱的ADP與非農就業報告後，市場對於下周FOMC會議的唯一疑問是聯儲局將降息多少，而非是否降息。根據利率期貨市場的數據，在9月17日的議息會議上，除了至少降息0.25%之外，還有8%的概率會額外大幅降息0.5%。儘管9月的第一周因假期縮短，美國股市仍取得周線小幅正報酬。然而，就業數據引發的經濟成長擔憂，已超過降息預期所帶來的提振效果。

本周關注重點

本周將有重磅通脹數據，包括周三的生產者物價指數（PPI）、周四的消費者物價指數（CPI）、以及周五的密歇根大學通脹預期和消費者信心指數。市場將密切觀察這些價格數據，以判斷聯儲局是否有足夠空間在10天後重新啟動寬鬆貨幣政策周期。

另一方面，投資者會關注關稅消息，包括最高法院對白宮上訴案的進展，看關稅收入是否能繼續支持美國財政平衡，進而推升公債殖利率。另外，雖然不太明顯但可能更重要的是美中談判持續停滯。鑑於大部分關稅相關利好消息已公布且反映在市場中，本周和本月這一議題更可能帶來下行風險。

尚無需降息0.5%

除每周的初領失業救濟金人數外，就業數據不多，但市場仍將密切追蹤勞動市場狀況。過去幾個月職缺與新增職位表現低迷，主要因關稅引發的停滯性通膨風險升高，導致企業凍結招聘。許多僱主採取「不招聘、不裁員」的臨時策略，等待關稅政策明朗。此政策大幅降低了政府與私部門薪資報告中的新增職位數，但每周的初領失業救濟申請維持在正常範圍內，雖稍微攀升。失業率雖較過去12個月極低基期略有上升，仍維持在4.3%的低水準。

總結來說，由於關稅疑慮，薪資增長暫停，但整體就業市場仍相對健康，尚未到需引發市場恐慌的程度。儘管聯儲局去年9月（2024年9月18日）曾有過一次0.5%的大幅降息，考量目前通脹不算過低，本月大幅降息0.5%的需求與可能性非常小。招聘暫停應屬短期現象，未來很快會改善並回歸正常，因此聯儲局下周三不太可能需要大幅降息。如果勞動市場在未來一兩個月未能改善，聯儲局可以在11月和12月的會議中進一步降息。預期9月16至17日FOMC仍將僅降息0.25%，但若聲明及記者會偏鴿，有望提升降息預期的樂觀情緒，支撐美股與債市。

US market may keep worrying over job number, tariff issues, & FOMC meeting next week

After the two weak ADP & Non-Farm Payroll reports last week, the only question on next week FOMC meeting is how big will the Fed cut interest rate, not if. As per interest-rate futures market, there is an 8% chance of a jumbo 0.5% cut on September 17^th on top of a minimum 0.25% easing. US stock market still managed to edge out a positive weekly gain in the short first week of September but the job data start to hurt sentiment on growth worry more than the help on easing hope.

Key things to watch this week

This week is inflation data heavy with PPI & CPI reporting on Wednesday and Thursday along with Univ of Michigan inflation expectation and Consumer Confidence Index on Friday. These price data will be closely watched by the market to see if the Fed has the needed room on inflation to allow them to restart monetary easing cycle 10 days later.

On the other hand, investors would follow tariff news including Supreme court’s progress on White House’s appeal to see whether tariff income will continue to help US fiscal balance that may boost bond yield. Also, less obvious but probably more important is the ongoing negotiation between US & China which seems stalled now. As most tariff-related good news are announced and reflected in the market already, there is probably more chance of downside risk from this topic this week & month.

US employment market is not as bad as showed in Payroll reports that needs a 0.5% cut

Besides the weekly Jobless Claim report, there is not much number on employment but the market will keep drilling on job market health. Job opening and creation have been dismal in the last few months mostly due to hiring freeze due to heightened concern on risk of stagflation due to tariff. Many employers have been adopting a ‘no hiring & no firing’ temporary policy until tariff policy is clearer. This substantially reduces new payrolls in both government and private reports; however, weekly jobless claims remain within normal range although slightly higher. On the other hand, albeit a slight uptick from extremely low base in last 12 months, unemployment rate remains at a low 4.3% level.

In short, while payroll is ‘paused’ due to tariff worry, overall job market remains relatively healthy and far from poor status that warrant market panic. Although the Fed did a jumbo 0.5% cut last September (18 Sept 2024), the need or chance of a half-point cut this month is very small this month especially as inflation is not too low now. The pause in hiring should be a short-term issue that would improve & return more normal soon and hence the Fed does not have a big need to cut 0.5% next Wednesday. If job market fails to recover soon in the next month or two, the Fed can cut further in November and December FOMC meetings. So, the Sept 16-17 FOMC meeting would still only cut 0.25% but hopefully a dovish statement and press conference would help the rate cut hope optimism to support stock and bond market.